Fed opens two-day meeting after September hike; markets price about 90% odds of a hold
The FOMC begins its Oct. 27-28 meeting with the target range at 3.75-4.00% after last month's hike; a pause is widely expected, but futures lean toward another increase in December.
The Federal Reserve’s policy committee starts its two-day meeting today, with the decision due Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM.
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Current target range | 3.75–4.00% (raised in September) |
| Odds of a hold this week | about 90% (CME FedWatch / fed funds futures) |
| Odds of a December hike | about 80% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | about 4.98% |
Unlike most of the past two years, the question is whether the Fed raises rates again, not when it cuts. Last month’s increase was its first in about three years, and oil above $100 a barrel has kept inflation risk in focus.
Why it matters: a “hawkish pause”, holding rates while signaling more hikes, could push yields back up just as Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday evening. Rate-sensitive groups such as housing and consumer durables have already been under pressure.
WMR data view: the 10-year yield closed Monday at 4.99%, down from above 5.2% earlier this month in our data, so markets have partly unwound this month’s bond sell-off ahead of the decision; see yields, the dollar and the VIX on /en/markets/pulse/.
Next: Wednesday’s statement and press-conference signals on December, then Thursday’s Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation.
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