📄 Full report · Week Ahead · 9 min · 3-minute summary available
Fed Decision Meets Big Tech Earnings: What to Watch the Week of Oct 26
Data as of: Oct 25, 2026 07:00 ET (market levels as of the Friday, Oct 23 close)
Key takeaways
- The FOMC decides Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET; CME FedWatch pricing showed roughly 87-91% odds of a hold (reports of Oct 22-24), so the focus is on any signal for a December hike.
- Microsoft and Alphabet (Wed) and Amazon and Intel (Thu) report after the close, with investors testing whether cloud growth can justify AI spending after Meta's capex guidance hit tech stocks.
- Thursday brings Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation at 8:30 AM ET, plus the ECB decision, all with Brent crude near $117 after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
☰ Contents
Next week packs a Fed decision, four Big Tech earnings reports and the most important U.S. inflation print of the month into five trading days. The backdrop: AI stocks are still digesting Meta’s spending plans, Brent crude settled at $116.72 on Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5%.
Status in the calendar: “Official” means the date was set by a government agency, central bank or company; “Reported” means it comes from media reports; “Tentative” means calendar sites only, so it may change. Consensus figures are shown only when at least two sources agree; where they differ, we show the range. Charts are computed directly from raw prices; each shows its own data date. On the web, tap a chart for the detailed table.
1. Three things that matter most
| # | What | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | FOMC decision (Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET) | The fed funds target is 3.75%-4.00% after September’s 25 bp hike. Markets price a hold (CME FedWatch roughly 87-91%, reports of Oct 22-24), so the question is whether Chair Kevin Warsh signals a December hike, which was priced at roughly 83-84% in reports from Oct 20-24. |
| 2 | Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel (Wed/Thu after the close) | Meta narrowed its 2026 capex guidance to $135-145 billion on Oct 21 and AI stocks sold off the next day. This week tests whether Azure, Google Cloud and AWS growth can justify rising spending. |
| 3 | Q3 GDP and September PCE (Thu Oct 29, 8:30 AM ET) | Headline PCE was 3.4% y/y in August and core 3.0%. With oil near $117 and one-year consumer inflation expectations at 4.7%, a hot print would feed the December-hike debate. |
Starting point (Friday, Oct 23 close)
| Item | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target | 3.75%-4.00% | Hiked 25 bp in September (unanimous) |
| 10-year Treasury yield | about 5.00% | Slightly lower on the week |
| Brent / WTI | $116.72 / $103.27 | Up 3.1% / 3.8% on Friday after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia |
| S&P 500 / Nasdaq | 7,623.68 / 25,955.34 | Weekly -0.5% / -0.7% |
U.S. markets at a glance — last 12 monthsComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-22S&P 5001Y +13.8%7,663 · 1W -0.7%Nasdaq1Y +13.1%26,009 · 1W -2.6%Dow1Y +13.2%52,868 · 1W +2.4%PHLX Semis1Y +55.9%10,732 · 1W -8.2%VIX1Y +3.8%19.30 · 1W +14.4%US 10Y1Y +0.97p4.953% · 1W -0.237pDollar Idx1Y +3.1%101.63 · 1W -0.9%Gold1Y -1.6%4,044 · 1W -3.0%WTI Crude1Y +71.9%99.40 · 1W +1.5%Tap for details
S&P 5001Y +13.8%
7,663 · 1W -0.7%
Nasdaq1Y +13.1%
26,009 · 1W -2.6%
Dow1Y +13.2%
52,868 · 1W +2.4%
PHLX Semis1Y +55.9%
10,732 · 1W -8.2%
VIX1Y +3.8%
19.30 · 1W +14.4%
US 10Y1Y +0.97p
4.953% · 1W -0.237p
Dollar Idx1Y +3.1%
101.63 · 1W -0.9%
Gold1Y -1.6%
4,044 · 1W -3.0%
WTI Crude1Y +71.9%
99.40 · 1W +1.5%
| Name | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,663 | -0.6% | -0.7% | -1.3% | +7.4% | +13.8% |
| Nasdaq | 26,009 | -1.6% | -2.6% | -4.5% | +5.5% | +13.1% |
| Dow | 52,868 | +0.7% | +2.4% | +1.9% | +6.8% | +13.2% |
| PHLX Semis | 10,732 | -4.9% | -8.2% | -15.4% | +8.3% | +55.9% |
| VIX | 19.30 | +11.5% | +14.4% | +35.8% | +3.1% | +3.8% |
| US 10Y | 4.953% | -0.164p | -0.237p | -0.015p | +0.659p | +0.967p |
| Dollar Idx | 101.63 | -0.1% | -0.9% | +1.0% | +3.1% | +3.1% |
| Gold | 4,044 | -2.5% | -3.0% | -6.3% | -14.4% | -1.6% |
| WTI Crude | 99.40 | +2.3% | +1.5% | +7.9% | +3.7% | +71.9% |
2. Day-by-day calendar (Eastern Time)
U.S. clocks fall back on Sunday, Nov 1.
| Date (ET) | Time | Event | Why it matters | Prior / expectations | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 26 | Afternoon | 2-year note auction ($69 billion) | Demand for Treasuries with yields near 5% | — | Official (date) |
| Tue Oct 27 | 8:30 AM | Durable goods orders (Sep) | Business investment trend | Prior 0.0% | Tentative |
| 10:00 AM | Conference Board consumer confidence (Oct) | September was the lowest in more than a decade; gauges the hit from prices and oil | Prior 81.9 | Tentative | |
| Afternoon | 5-year note auction ($70 billion); FOMC meeting begins | — | — | Official (date) | |
| Wed Oct 28 | 9:45 AM | Bank of Canada decision | Expected hike from 2.25% to 2.50% (about 85% priced, per Yardeni) | Current 2.25% | Reported |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC decision, followed by Chair Warsh’s press conference | Hold priced; watch statement and presser for December guidance and comments on oil-driven inflation | 3.75%-4.00%. No new projections (dot plot) at this meeting | Official | |
| After close | Microsoft, Alphabet earnings (also KLA, ServiceNow, T-Mobile) | Cloud growth, capex plans | See earnings table | Reported | |
| Thu Oct 29 | Before open | Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck | Pharma, consumer spending, data-center power demand | See table below | Reported |
| 8:30 AM | Q3 GDP (advance) | Pace of growth; forecasts vary widely (1.7%-3.0%) | Prior 2.2% annualized; Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3.5% (Oct 20) | Official (date) | |
| 8:30 AM | September PCE inflation, personal income and spending; weekly jobless claims | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge | PCE prior 3.4% y/y, core 3.0%. Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.6% / core about 3.1% | Official (date) | |
| 9:15 AM | ECB decision (press conference 9:45 AM) | Deposit rate 2.50%, hold expected; watch for December signals | Current 2.50% | Reported | |
| Afternoon | 7-year note auction | — | — | Official (date) | |
| After close | Amazon, Intel earnings (also Starbucks, Sandisk, Coinbase) | AWS growth, Intel’s Q4 outlook, memory demand | See earnings table | Reported | |
| Overnight | Bank of Japan decision (no fixed release time) | 1.25%, hold expected; December signals and the yen | Current 1.25% | Reported | |
| Fri Oct 30 | Before open | ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie | Oil-major profits at $100-plus crude | See table below | Reported |
| 8:30 AM | Employment cost index (Q3) | Wage pressure | — | Official | |
| Afternoon | Fed’s Daly and Musalem speak (first remarks after the meeting) | Views on December | — | Reported | |
| Next week | Mon Nov 2 | ISM manufacturing (Oct); Apple, Palantir after the close (calls 5:00 PM) | Factory activity; iPhone and services, AI software demand | — | Tentative / Reported (Palantir per company) |
| Tue Nov 3 | Midterm elections; AMD after the close | Congressional balance, fiscal and tariff policy; data-center GPUs | — | Reported | |
| Fri Nov 6, 8:30 AM | October jobs report | Hiring and wages | — | Official |
- Holidays and expirations: U.S. markets are open all week. Monthly options expiration (third Friday) already passed on Oct 16.
- Treasury auction dates are from the Treasury schedule; sizes are as reported.
- Most consensus figures for this week’s data appear on only one calendar site, so we list only priors confirmed by at least two sources.
3. Earnings to watch
Big Tech and chips (consensus as reported by media)
| Company | Report | EPS est. | Revenue est. | Prior quarter | Year-ago | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft (FQ1) | Wed Oct 28, after close (call 5:30 PM) | $4.71-$4.72 | Company guide $89.85-$90.95B | EPS $4.74; Azure +43% | EPS about $4.13 (one source) | Azure growth (company guide about +45% in constant currency); quarterly capex |
| Alphabet | Wed Oct 28, after close (call 4:30 PM) | $2.94-$3.10 (varies by source) | about $127.4-$127.9B | Revenue $119.8B; Google Cloud $24.8B (+82%) | Revenue $102.35B; EPS $2.87 | Whether 2026 capex guide of $195-$205B holds; cloud momentum |
| Amazon | Thu Oct 29, after close (call 5:00 PM) | $1.96 | about $202.2B | Revenue $200.6B; AWS +37% | EPS $1.95 (one source) | AWS growth (Street hopes 30%-35%); operating income guide $22.5-$26.5B |
| Intel | Thu Oct 29, after close (call 5:00 PM) | $0.28-$0.40 (wide spread) | about $16.45-$16.5B | Revenue $16.1B; adj. EPS $0.42 | — | Versus guidance (revenue $15.8-$16.8B, adj. EPS $0.38); 2027 capex |
| Apple (FQ4) | Mon Nov 2 (call 5:00 PM) | — | — | — | Revenue $102.5B (one source) | Unusual Monday report; iPhone, services, AI features |
| Palantir | Mon Nov 2, after close (company notice) | — | — | — | — | AI platform demand |
| AMD | Tue Nov 3, after close | — | — | — | — | Data-center GPUs (fell 8.1% on Oct 22) |
- Meta’s Oct 21 release narrowed 2026 capex to $135-$145 billion from $130-$145 billion (company release). The key question is whether similar increases from peers meet the same reaction.
Big Tech 1M performanceComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-22Tap for details
| Name | Close | 1D | 1W | 1M | 6M | 1Y | YTD | vs 1Y high | Volume vs 20D avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $212.21 | -4.4% | -2.3% | -7.3% | +6.5% | +18.0% | +14.1% | -11.3% | 1.2x |
| Tesla (TSLA) | $374.58 | -3.1% | +3.3% | -1.1% | +0.2% | -14.7% | -16.7% | -23.5% | 1.4x |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $324.22 | -3.1% | -7.2% | -7.7% | -4.2% | +29.2% | +3.8% | -19.4% | 1.1x |
| Apple (AAPL) | $348.22 | +1.2% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +27.6% | +35.2% | +28.4% | +0.0% | 1.2x |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $521.08 | -2.2% | -3.4% | +4.6% | +25.8% | +0.9% | +8.4% | -4.1% | 1.0x |
| Amazon (AMZN) | $250.38 | -4.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.8% | +14.9% | +8.5% | -11.8% | 1.4x |
| Meta (META) | $648.85 | -7.0% | -11.9% | -11.9% | -1.4% | -11.2% | -1.4% | -16.6% | 2.1x |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $323.24 | -4.3% | -6.1% | -11.3% | -22.8% | -4.3% | -6.1% | -32.6% | 1.3x |
| Palantir (PLTR) | $196.19 | -2.7% | -2.1% | +6.1% | +38.6% | +11.8% | +10.4% | -6.2% | 1.0x |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | $704.47 | -2.9% | -3.2% | -5.8% | +8.4% | +16.9% | +15.1% | -7.3% | 1.7x |
Nvidia1Y +18.0%
212.21 · 1W -2.3%
Tesla1Y -14.7%
374.58 · 1W +3.3%
Alphabet1Y +29.2%
324.22 · 1W -7.2%
Apple1Y +35.2%
348.22 · 1W +1.8%
Microsoft1Y +0.9%
521.08 · 1W -3.4%
Amazon1Y +14.9%
250.38 · 1W -1.7%
Meta1Y -11.2%
648.85 · 1W -11.9%
Broadcom1Y -4.3%
323.24 · 1W -6.1%
Palantir1Y +11.8%
196.19 · 1W -2.1%
Big Tech YTD performanceComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-22Tap for details
| Name | Close | 1D | 1W | 1M | 6M | 1Y | YTD | vs 1Y high | Volume vs 20D avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $212.21 | -4.4% | -2.3% | -7.3% | +6.5% | +18.0% | +14.1% | -11.3% | 1.2x |
| Tesla (TSLA) | $374.58 | -3.1% | +3.3% | -1.1% | +0.2% | -14.7% | -16.7% | -23.5% | 1.4x |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $324.22 | -3.1% | -7.2% | -7.7% | -4.2% | +29.2% | +3.8% | -19.4% | 1.1x |
| Apple (AAPL) | $348.22 | +1.2% | +1.8% | +2.5% | +27.6% | +35.2% | +28.4% | +0.0% | 1.2x |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $521.08 | -2.2% | -3.4% | +4.6% | +25.8% | +0.9% | +8.4% | -4.1% | 1.0x |
| Amazon (AMZN) | $250.38 | -4.6% | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.8% | +14.9% | +8.5% | -11.8% | 1.4x |
| Meta (META) | $648.85 | -7.0% | -11.9% | -11.9% | -1.4% | -11.2% | -1.4% | -16.6% | 2.1x |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $323.24 | -4.3% | -6.1% | -11.3% | -22.8% | -4.3% | -6.1% | -32.6% | 1.3x |
| Palantir (PLTR) | $196.19 | -2.7% | -2.1% | +6.1% | +38.6% | +11.8% | +10.4% | -6.2% | 1.0x |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | $704.47 | -2.9% | -3.2% | -5.8% | +8.4% | +16.9% | +15.1% | -7.3% | 1.7x |
Nvidia1Y +18.0%
212.21 · 1W -2.3%
Tesla1Y -14.7%
374.58 · 1W +3.3%
Alphabet1Y +29.2%
324.22 · 1W -7.2%
Apple1Y +35.2%
348.22 · 1W +1.8%
Microsoft1Y +0.9%
521.08 · 1W -3.4%
Amazon1Y +14.9%
250.38 · 1W -1.7%
Meta1Y -11.2%
648.85 · 1W -11.9%
Broadcom1Y -4.3%
323.24 · 1W -6.1%
Palantir1Y +11.8%
196.19 · 1W -2.1%
Other notable reports (EPS ranges from Kiplinger and StockTitan)
| Date | Company | EPS est. | Year-ago EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 27, before open | Coca-Cola / Boeing | $0.87-$0.88 / -$0.21 to -$0.25 | $0.82 / -$7.47 |
| Tue Oct 27, after close | Visa | $3.43-$3.44 | $2.98 |
| Wed Oct 28, after close | KLA | $1.18 | $0.88 |
| Thu Oct 29, before open | Eli Lilly / Mastercard / Caterpillar | $5.38-$5.70 / $5.14-$5.17 / $7.03-$7.12 | $7.02 / $4.38 / $4.95 |
| Fri Oct 30, before open | ExxonMobil / Chevron | $3.96-$4.10 / $4.78-$4.86 | $1.88 / $1.85 |
4. Key variables
| Variable | Where things stand | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Oil and the Middle East | Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and airports; reported threats to tankers near Hormuz. Brent $116.72, highest settlement since April | Further attacks; energy in Thursday’s PCE; Exxon and Chevron results |
| Rates | 10-year near 5.00%; Fed has left the door open to a December hike | FOMC (Wed), GDP and PCE (Thu), ECI (Fri), Fed speakers from Friday |
| Global tightening | Bank of Canada expected to hike; ECB and BOJ expected to hold with December hikes priced at about 75% and 74% (Yardeni) | BoC Wed, ECB Thu, BOJ Thu night ET |
| Politics | Midterms on Nov 3 | Fiscal and tariff rhetoric before the vote |
- Tariffs: we found no confirmed U.S.-China or U.S.-Korea tariff deadline falling this week.
Crypto Fear & Greed IndexComputed from raw prices · as of 2026-10-22Tap for details
0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed. It describes mood, not direction.
| Source | Now | Rating | 1 week ago | 1 month ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 68 | Greed | 53 | 78 |
5. Conditional scenarios (“if … then”)
These outline what markets may focus on under different outcomes. They are not predictions or investment advice.
- If the Fed holds but clearly signals a December hike, and September PCE comes in above August’s 3.4%, and Brent stays above $110, then the 5% 10-year yield and rich tech valuations could return to center stage.
- If Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon post cloud growth at or above hopes (Azure about 45%, AWS 30%-35%), and capex increases are matched by revenue growth, and guidance holds or rises, then the AI-spending worries that followed Meta could ease.
- If capex rises further while cloud growth misses, and free cash flow shrinks, and shares drop the way Meta’s did, then pressure could spread to AI chip names such as Nvidia and AMD.
- If Middle East attacks pause, and oil retreats, and GDP and PCE land within expectations, then the focus could shift from inflation back to earnings.
6. Carry-over checklist from last week
- AI capex versus cloud growth after Meta (Wed-Thu earnings)
- Brent above $115: further attacks, and whether energy shows up in PCE (Thu)
- December hike odds after the FOMC statement and press conference (Wed)
- Consumer stress: one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% in October; does Conference Board confidence (Tue) confirm the weakness?
- Nasdaq down two straight weeks while the Dow and Russell 2000 rose: does the rotation continue?
7. Asian chipmakers
- SK Hynix reports Q3 results on the evening of Tue Oct 27 ET (Wednesday morning in Seoul). Samsung Electronics releases final Q3 numbers on the evening of Wed Oct 28 ET, after preliminary figures of 107.4 trillion won in operating profit.
- Korea’s chip exports for Oct 1–20 rose 222.5% y/y, an early read on global memory demand.
This report summarizes confirmed schedules and published reports. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Corrections
- 2026-10-28 · A regional market chart used closes one to two sessions older than the text and has been removed.
- 2026-10-29 · Removed the Korea market section to keep this edition focused on U.S. markets.
Sources
- Yardeni QuickTakes – Economic Week Ahead (Oct 26-30)
- BlockBeats (via KuCoin) – CME FedWatch October hold odds (Oct 24)
- Herald Business – Week-ahead market outlook citing CME FedWatch
- Mitrade – Reuters economist poll coverage (Oct 22)
- AP – Inflation, earnings, consumer mood and the Fed fill a busy week
- FinancialJuice – Week Ahead Economic Indicators (US)
- Trading Economics – Economic calendar
- Investrade – Weekly event calendar (Oct 26-30)
- Fattail – Q3 GDP preview
- ThriveInMarkets – Week of Oct 26 calendar
- FXStreet – Central banks take centre stage
- BLS – October 2026 release schedule
- BLS – November 2026 release schedule
- U.S. Treasury – Tentative auction schedule
- Kiplinger – Next week's earnings calendar
- StockTitan – Earnings calendar, week of Oct 26
- Investment House – Microsoft earnings preview
- Yahoo Finance – Microsoft earnings preview
- The Next Web – Alphabet Q2 results and capex outlook
- StoneX – Weekly equities outlook (Amazon, Alphabet)
- Yahoo Finance – Alphabet earnings preview
- CoinCentral – Amazon earnings preview
- Intel – Second-quarter 2026 results (IR)
- Benzinga – Intel earnings preview
- Meta – Third-quarter 2026 results (IR)
- MacRumors – Apple Q4 2026 earnings date
- Palantir – Q3 2026 earnings date announcement (via StockTitan)
- SignalStack – Q3 2026 earnings dates
- Financial News (Korea) – SK Hynix Q3 consensus
- CNB News (Korea) – Samsung Electronics Q3 preliminary results
- Asia Economy (Korea) – Oct 1-20 exports
- Straight News (Korea) – Oil settlement, Oct 23
All content on this site is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Editorial & Corrections Policy
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