Morning

📄 Full report · Morning · 11 min · 3-minute summary available

Brazil Shock Meets Fed Week: Brazilian ADRs Sink Premarket as Oil Eases From a Six-Month High

Data as of: 2026-10-26 06:30 ET (Friday Oct 23 close and Monday overnight data)

Key takeaways

  1. Brazilian ADRs fell 20% to 46% before the bell after President Lula won Sunday's runoff with 51.8%, while U.S. stock futures edged higher.
  2. Brent eased about 1.3% to $115.23 in early Monday trade after Friday's $116.72 settle, the highest since April, as Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran.
  3. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday with a hold priced at about 88-91%; today brings a $69 billion 2-year note auction at 1:00 PM and Cadence and Nucor after the close.
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Charts are computed directly from raw prices; each shows its own data date. On the web, tap a chart for the detailed table.

A heavy week opens with a shock from Latin America. Brazilian stocks listed in New York tumbled before the bell after President Lula’s comeback win, while oil pulled back from Friday’s six-month high on signs of diplomacy with Iran. The Fed decides Wednesday, and Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Intel report later in the week.

0. Last report check

  • Brent above $115 (flagged Sunday): Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday and was trading near $115 early Monday, still above that line.
  • Fed hold odds of roughly 87-91% (flagged Sunday): unchanged at about 88-91% in reports from Oct 25-26.
  • The FOMC, Big Tech earnings and Thursday’s GDP and PCE data are still ahead.

1. Overnight

MarketLevelMoveNote
S&P 500 futures—about +0.2% to +0.4%AP, TipRanks (5:31 AM ET), IC Markets
Dow futures—about +0.4% to +0.5%AP, TipRanks
Nasdaq 100 futures—about +0.25% by 5:31 AM ETSlightly lower in earlier European trade (XTB, FXStreet)
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield4.974%down from about 4.99% on FridayReuters, Asian hours
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield4.686% (Friday)+5 bp on Friday
Brent crude$115.23-$1.49 (-1.3%)Reuters, 07:44 GMT; Friday settle $116.72
WTI crude$101.51-$1.76 (-1.7%)Reuters, 07:44 GMT; Friday settle about $103.27
Spot gold$4,009.87+0.4%Reuters; down about 4% last week
Spot silver$54.19+0.6%Reuters
Dollar index101.64slightly lowerReuters
Dollar vs. yenabout ¥157little changedReuters, AP
Euroabout $1.122+0.16%Reuters
  • Oil: Prices dipped after Reuters reported, citing an official, that Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Sunday in coordination with the U.S. Over the weekend the Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi oil facilities and Riyadh’s airport; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles and drones, and no damage to oil infrastructure has been independently confirmed. Brent gained about 6% last week.
  • Abu Dhabi’s Murban grade rose about 3% to above $118, a premium for crude that avoids Hormuz.
  • Some Brent quotes near $109-110 this morning appear to reflect a different contract month; we use Reuters’ front-month figures.

Asia (Monday close) and Europe (this morning)

IndexLevelMoveNote
Nikkei 22562,189.65-0.8%Third straight decline; chip stocks weak
Hang Sengabout 23,210about +0.5%Oil producers higher (PetroChina +4.1%), chips lagged
Shanghai Composite3,697.52+0.2%Onshore yuan at its strongest since June 2022
Taiwan TAIEX—Closed
STOXX 600636.26flat08:09 GMT; energy -0.7%, travel +1%
  • In Europe, Galp fell 8.5% despite higher profit, while Computacenter rose 6.8% after raising guidance (Reuters).
U.S. markets at a glance — last 12 monthsComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-23
S&P 5001Y +13.8%
7,624 · 1W -0.5%
Nasdaq1Y +14.1%
25,955 · 1W -0.7%
Dow1Y +12.1%
52,215 · 1W +0.4%
PHLX Semis1Y +61.4%
10,779 · 1W -3.2%
VIX1Y +18.8%
19.45 · 1W -2.7%
US 10Y1Y +1.03p
4.988% · 1W -0.110p
Dollar Idx1Y +2.9%
101.81 · 1W -0.0%
Gold1Y -1.4%
4,008 · 1W -4.1%
WTI Crude1Y +76.5%
103.27 · 1W +1.8%
Tap for details
NameLast1D1W1M6M1Y
S&P 5007,624-0.5%-0.5%-1.0%+6.4%+13.8%
Nasdaq25,955-0.2%-0.7%-3.6%+4.5%+14.1%
Dow52,215-1.2%+0.4%+1.7%+6.1%+12.1%
PHLX Semis10,779+0.4%-3.2%-13.7%+2.5%+61.4%
VIX19.45+2.2%-2.7%+24.1%+9.1%+18.8%
US 10Y4.988%+0.035p-0.110p-0.174p+0.678p+1.035p
Dollar Idx101.81+0.2%-0.0%+0.5%+3.4%+2.9%
Gold4,008-1.3%-4.1%-6.8%-15.5%-1.4%
WTI Crude103.27+3.8%+1.8%+9.2%+9.4%+76.5%

2. Friday’s close (10/23)

IndexCloseDayWeek
Dow Jones Industrial Average52,215.16-1.23%+0.41% (third weekly gain)
S&P 5007,623.68-0.52%-0.47% (second weekly loss)
Nasdaq Composite25,955.34-0.21%-0.71%
Russell 20002,775.90-0.29%+2.0%
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index10,779.46+0.44%—
VIX19.45+2.2%—

What moved markets: Oil rose for a second day after attacks in Saudi Arabia, lifting the S&P 500 energy sector about 2.5% to a record, while consumer staples, consumer discretionary and financials each fell more than 1%. Chip stocks steadied after Thursday’s rout. The Dow lost more than 650 points, partly on drops in American Express and telecom stocks. NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers 1.72 to 1 (Reuters).

Sectors (sector SPDR ETFs, Friday)

SectorETFDayWeek
EnergyXLE+2.60%+1.6%
TechnologyXLK+0.49%-0.1%
Real EstateXLRE+0.12%+1.0%
UtilitiesXLU-0.72%+0.8%
MaterialsXLB-0.74%+0.8%
Health CareXLV-1.11%+1.5%
IndustrialsXLI-1.27%-1.9%
FinancialsXLF-1.32%+0.7%
Consumer DiscretionaryXLY-1.66%+0.6%
Communication ServicesXLC-1.8%-4.4%
Consumer StaplesXLP-1.92%+0.7%

Daily figures from Stockanalysis.com.

U.S. sector ETFs 1D performanceComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-23
Energy+2.6%
Tech+0.5%
Real Estate+0.1%
Utilities-0.7%
Materials-0.7%
Health Care-1.1%
Industrials-1.3%
Financials-1.3%
Cons. Disc.-1.7%
Comm.-1.8%
Cons. Staples-1.9%
Tap for details
NameLast1D1W1M6M1Y
Tech (XLK)183.23+0.5%-0.1%-5.9%+14.4%+28.4%
Comm. (XLC)105.51-1.8%-4.4%-7.4%-8.7%-8.8%
Cons. Disc. (XLY)113.10-1.7%+0.6%+2.5%-4.7%-4.7%
Financials (XLF)55.90-1.3%+0.7%+2.5%+8.7%+6.6%
Health Care (XLV)179.28-1.1%+1.4%+5.5%+24.3%+22.8%
Energy (XLE)69.33+2.6%+1.6%+10.8%+21.9%+57.9%
Industrials (XLI)164.62-1.3%-1.9%-2.5%-4.5%+7.7%
Materials (XLB)51.31-0.7%+0.8%+3.3%-1.2%+16.2%
Utilities (XLU)42.56-0.7%+0.8%+8.1%-7.8%-5.8%
Cons. Staples (XLP)88.26-1.9%+0.7%+8.0%+6.0%+10.7%
Real Estate (XLRE)42.57+0.1%+1.0%+2.2%-2.9%+0.1%

Big Tech and chips (Friday close)

StockClose ($)FriThuWeek
Micron (MU)877.55+2.46%-6.26%-0.2%
AMD516.79+1.74%-8.10%-2.3%
Microsoft (MSFT)524.51+0.66%-2.23%-0.9%
Palantir (PLTR)196.75+0.29%-2.74%+5.8%
Apple (AAPL)347.73-0.14%+1.23%+1.2%
Broadcom (AVGO)321.68-0.48%-4.31%-2.2%
Nvidia (NVDA)210.96-0.59%-4.40%-1.5%
Tesla (TSLA)372.22-0.63%-3.08%+4.9%
Amazon (AMZN)248.00-0.95%-4.57%-0.8%
Meta (META)642.62-0.96%-6.98%-9.4%
Alphabet (GOOGL)320.21-1.24%-3.15%-6.0%

Closing prices from Stockanalysis.com daily history. Weekly change is from the Oct 16 close.

Big Tech 1W performanceComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-23
Palantir+5.8%
Tesla+4.9%
Apple+1.2%
Amazon-0.8%
Nasdaq-100 ETF-0.8%
Microsoft-0.9%
Nvidia-1.5%
Broadcom-2.2%
Alphabet-6.0%
Meta-9.4%
Tap for details
NameClose1D1W1M6M1YYTDvs 1Y highVolume vs 20D avg
Nvidia (NVDA)$210.96-0.6%-1.5%-6.5%+1.5%+16.1%+13.4%-11.8%0.8x
Tesla (TSLA)$372.22-0.6%+4.9%-2.1%-1.1%-17.1%-17.2%-24.0%0.9x
Alphabet (GOOGL)$320.21-1.2%-6.0%-5.2%-6.9%+26.9%+2.5%-20.4%0.7x
Apple (AAPL)$347.73-0.1%+1.2%+3.2%+28.5%+34.5%+28.3%-0.1%1.0x
Microsoft (MSFT)$524.51+0.7%-0.9%+4.8%+24.0%+1.6%+9.1%-3.5%0.6x
Amazon (AMZN)$248.00-1.0%-0.8%-0.5%-6.1%+12.2%+7.4%-12.7%0.7x
Meta (META)$642.62-1.0%-9.4%-13.6%-4.6%-12.2%-2.4%-17.4%0.7x
Broadcom (AVGO)$321.68-0.5%-2.2%-9.4%-23.7%-5.9%-6.5%-33.0%0.7x
Palantir (PLTR)$196.75+0.3%+5.8%+2.6%+37.5%+9.0%+10.7%-5.9%0.8x
Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)$704.40-0.0%-0.8%-5.0%+6.3%+15.9%+15.1%-7.3%0.8x
Nvidia1Y +16.1%
210.96 · 1W -1.5%
Tesla1Y -17.1%
372.22 · 1W +4.9%
Alphabet1Y +26.9%
320.21 · 1W -6.0%
Apple1Y +34.5%
347.73 · 1W +1.2%
Microsoft1Y +1.6%
524.51 · 1W -0.9%
Amazon1Y +12.2%
248.00 · 1W -0.8%
Meta1Y -12.2%
642.62 · 1W -9.4%
Broadcom1Y -5.9%
321.68 · 1W -2.2%
Palantir1Y +9.0%
196.75 · 1W +5.8%

Biggest movers on Friday

StockMoveWhy
Crown Castle (CCI)+9.1%Reports that SpaceX is seeking to lease U.S. cell sites for a mobile service; American Tower rose about 4%
CrowdStrike (CRWD)+8.3%Cybersecurity stocks rallied
SLB+7.1%Q3 results and higher oil (see Section 3)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)+7.2%Cybersecurity rally
Bloom Energy (BE)-11.2%Fell after its quarterly report despite raised guidance
Comfort Systems (FIX)-9.3%Results gave no clear outlook; CFO retiring
AT&T (T) / T-Mobile (TMUS)about -8% eachWorry about competition from a SpaceX mobile service
Deckers (DECK)-4.9%Mixed fiscal Q2 results
Biggest U.S. movers (market cap $5B+)Computed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-23
BUUU · BUUU Group Limited+18.3%
GMAB · Genmab A/S+9.5%
NTSK · Netskope, Inc.+9.4%
VG · Venture Global, In+9.3%
CART · Maplebear Inc.+9.2%
CCI · Crown Castle Inc.+9.1%
CORT · Corcept Therapeuti-20.1%
BE · Bloom Energy Corpo-11.2%
CRDO · Credo Technology G-9.5%
FIX · Comfort Systems US-9.3%
GL · Globe Life Inc.-8.1%
T · AT&T Inc.-8.0%
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Name1DCloseMkt capVolume vs 20D avg
BUUU · BUUU Group Limited+18.3%$53.90$10.2B0.2x
GMAB · Genmab A/S+9.5%$43.79$26.9B4.1x
NTSK · Netskope, Inc.+9.4%$24.28$9.9B1.5x
VG · Venture Global, Inc.+9.3%$14.00$35.0B1.6x
CART · Maplebear Inc.+9.2%$56.44$13.4B4.0x
CCI · Crown Castle Inc.+9.1%$85.97$37.6B4.2x
CORT · Corcept Therapeutics Incorpo-20.1%$85.86$9.3B2.5x
BE · Bloom Energy Corporation-11.2%$193.30$57.1B2.2x
CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holdi-9.5%$147.29$27.7B1.7x
FIX · Comfort Systems USA, Inc.-9.3%$1,161$40.9B3.3x
GL · Globe Life Inc.-8.1%$154.79$11.9B3.2x
T · AT&T Inc.-8.0%$20.93$141.0B2.3x

3. Earnings recap

CompanyReportedResults (company release)GuidanceStock on Friday
American Express (AXP)Fri, before the openRecord revenue net of interest expense of $20.1B (+9%); EPS $5.42, or $4.68 excluding a $982M pre-tax gain on its GBTG stake sale net of restructuringRaised 2026 EPS outlook to $18.30-18.60About -3.7% to -4%; plans to cut about 5% of its workforce (AP)
SLBFri, before the openRevenue $9.45B (+6% y/y); EPS $0.49, or $0.64 excluding charges and creditsKept 2026 capital investment at about $2.5BAbout +7%
  • This morning: Verizon reports before the open, with its call at 8:30 AM ET. Cemex is also scheduled.

4. Premarket movers (Monday)

StockPremarket moveWhy
XP Inc. (XP)-46%
Inter & Co (INTR)-35%
StoneCo (STNE)-34%
PagSeguro (PAGS)-29%
Bradesco (BBD)-28%
Itau Unibanco (ITUB)-26% to -28%Lula’s re-election
Nu Holdings (NU)-24%
Sabesp (SBS)-21%
Xencor (XNCR)+27%
Surgery Partners (SGRY)+21%
Micron (MU)+1.4%
  • Brazil background: Lula took 51.79% to Flavio Bolsonaro’s 48.21% with all votes counted, the first time since 1985 that a second-place first-round finisher won (AP, Rio Times). Bolsonaro’s camp is seeking to have the result annulled over extended voting hours. A Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF fell as much as about 15-16% in Asian trading (Bloomberg, investingLive, XTB). Brazil’s markets open later this morning.
  • Premarket figures above are snapshots from about 5:00-5:50 AM ET and can change sharply before the open.

5. Today’s calendar (ET)

TimeEventNote
Before the openVerizon earnings (call 8:30 AM), Cemex
8:30 AMChicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)No consensus reported
10:30 AMDallas Fed manufacturing survey (Oct)
11:30 AM13- and 26-week bill auctionsUsual slot
1:00 PM2-year note auction, $69 billionDemand test with yields near 4.7%
After the closeCadence (EPS est. $2.05), Nucor ($5.71-5.84), Welltower ($1.64), Public Storage, Hartford, Celestica, Amkor, Rambus, Brown & Brown, Principal Financial
Fed speakersNonePre-meeting quiet period; FOMC meets Oct 27-28

Rest of the week (key items): Tuesday — Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, PayPal before the open; NXP and Visa after; $70B 5-year auction. Wednesday 2:00 PM — FOMC decision (press conference 2:30 PM); Microsoft and Alphabet after the close. Thursday 8:30 AM — Q3 GDP and September PCE; ECB at 9:15 AM; Amazon and Intel after the close.

  • Fed pricing: CME FedWatch showed about 88-91% odds of a hold at 3.75-4.00% (Schwab Network, FXEmpire, FXStreet). Odds of a December hike were reported between 68% and 80%, with most reports at 76-80%.

6. Unusual volume screen (U.S.)

No U.S. large-cap stock met our screen as of Friday’s close (20-day average volume up 100% or more versus the prior 20 days, with the price within ±3% over 20 days). Crown Castle, Genmab and Maplebear traded about 4 times their 20-day average volume on Friday, but with large price moves.

Volume surging while price is flat (U.S. large caps)Computed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-23
Up 300%+0
Up 200-300%0
Up 100-200%0
Tap for details

Average volume over the last 20 sessions vs. the prior 20, among stocks whose 20-session price change is within ±3%. Not a directional signal.

Volume increaseStocksTickers (up to 10)
Up 300%+0none
Up 200-300%0none
Up 100-200%0none

7. Crypto

CoinPrice (Mon morning)Note
Bitcoin (BTC)about $80,200-80,400Briefly fell below $80,000 on Saturday (lows near $79,100-79,200)
Ether (ETH)about $2,320-2,330About -0.9% in early Asian trade (Investing.com)
XRPabout $1.28-1.29
Solana (SOL)about $101.4
  • Weekend: Long positions worth about $440-550 million were liquidated in 24 hours as bitcoin dipped below $80,000 (CoinGlass data). Risk appetite was weighed by oil, high yields and Fed-week caution.
  • Spot ETF flows (Farside, $ millions): Bitcoin ETFs -137.9 on Friday and +401.2 for the week; ether ETFs +4.4 on Friday and -220.7 for the week.

Altcoins with the largest 24-hour trading volume (excluding BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and stablecoins)

CoinPrice24h volumeReason
BNB$738.40$1.20B
Zcash (ZEC)$1,232.01$748MNU7 network upgrade planned for November
Hyperliquid (HYPE)$77.01$667M
Dogecoin (DOGE)$0.0771$455M
Tron (TRX)$0.331$349M
Chainlink (LINK)$11.45$209M

Volumes from CoinMarketCap at the time of writing.

Major cryptocurrencies — last 12 monthsComputed from raw prices · as of 2026-10-23
Bitcoin1Y -27.9%
80,456 · 1W -1.9%
Ethereum1Y -40.6%
2,347 · 1W -2.6%
Solana1Y -47.6%
101.60 · 1W -2.3%
XRP1Y -50.0%
1.30 · 1W -0.5%
Tap for details
NameLast1D7D30D182D365D
Bitcoin80,456-0.4%-1.9%-4.3%+2.3%-27.9%
Ethereum2,347-0.4%-2.6%-12.8%-1.0%-40.6%
Solana101.60-0.7%-2.3%-16.7%+16.8%-47.6%
XRP1.30-0.0%-0.5%-17.2%-9.3%-50.0%
Crypto Fear & Greed IndexComputed from raw prices · as of 2026-10-2354NeutralTap for details

0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed. It describes mood, not direction.

SourceNowRating1 week ago1 month ago
alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index54Neutral5371

8. Big investors (13F)

Third-quarter 13F filings are due by Nov 16, so the first wave of filings from the investors we track will arrive in the coming weeks. Current holdings and quarter-over-quarter changes are on the Big Investors page. 13F data are up to 45 days old and exclude short positions, bonds and most non-U.S. stocks.

9. Top news

What happenedMarket reaction
Lula wins Brazil’s runoff with 51.8%; Bolsonaro camp seeks annulmentBrazil ETF in Tokyo fell about 15%; Brazilian ADRs down 20-46% premarket
Houthis claim weekend strikes on Saudi oil sites and Riyadh airport; Saudi Arabia reports interceptsBrent settled at $116.72 Friday, then eased Monday
Qatari mediators travel to Tehran, coordinated with the U.S. (Reuters, citing an official)Oil fell 1-2% in Asian and early European trade
Reports that SpaceX is seeking to lease up to 80,000 U.S. cell sites (Friday)Crown Castle +9%, AT&T and T-Mobile about -8%
Moody’s kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook (late Friday)French bonds rallied Monday
Fed week: hold widely expected, December hike in focusTreasury yields eased slightly; dollar index 101.64

10. What strategists are saying

WhoView
King Lip, BakerAvenue Wealth ManagementThis week’s earnings will show whether the tech selloff is a chance to buy or the start of a deeper pullback: “What we need is just another round of really strong earnings.” (Reuters)
Nick Giorgi, Alpine MacroMarkets are growing wary of AI spending; he sees that discipline as healthy but expects some near-term pain (Reuters)
Lance Roberts, RIA AdvisorsA hawkish tone from Chair Warsh could push the 10-year back above 5%, but credible AI returns from Microsoft and Alphabet could spark a short-covering rally
Mohamed El-ErianExpects a hold this week and hikes from December, and argues fiscal restraint would be a better tool than rate increases (Benzinga)

11. Asian chipmakers

  • Samsung Electronics fell 1.16% and SK Hynix 0.16% in Seoul ahead of SK Hynix’s Q3 results on Tuesday evening ET and Samsung’s final Q3 figures on Wednesday evening ET.

This report summarizes confirmed data and published reports. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Corrections

  • 2026-10-28 · A regional market chart used closes one to two sessions older than the text and has been removed.
  • 2026-10-29 · Removed the Korea market section to keep this edition focused on U.S. markets.

Sources

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