📄 Full report · Evening · 12 min · 3-minute summary available
Microsoft Rises and Alphabet Slides After Hours as AI Spending Splits the Verdict
Data as of: 2026-10-28 16:45 ET (regular-session close; after-hours moves as noted)
Key takeaways
- Microsoft rose about 4% after hours on 48% Azure growth, while Alphabet fell more than 6% as quarterly capex more than doubled.
- The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote; the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the 10-year yield climbed to 5.02%.
- Next: Thursday's 8:30 AM GDP and PCE data, the ECB decision, then Amazon and Intel after the close.
☰ Contents
The Fed did what everyone expected and left rates alone, so the real verdict of the day came after 4:00 PM, from two of the biggest AI spenders.
Microsoft rose about 4% in extended trading after Azure grew 48% and its backlog of contracted cloud revenue reached $677 billion. Alphabet went the other way, falling more than 6%, after its quarterly capital spending more than doubled to $51.4 billion and free cash flow turned negative.
During the session, stocks barely reacted to the Fed’s 10-2 hold, but bonds did: the 10-year yield rose to 5.02%. What matters now is whether investors keep paying up for AI spending that shows a return and punish spending that does not, a test that moves to Amazon on Thursday.
What matters today
The Fed paused, and two officials wanted to keep going
The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75%-4.00% after September’s quarter-point hike. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of another increase, and the statement upgraded the economy’s pace from “solid” to “strong” (Fed statement). It added that more information will guide the next step, and dropped September’s language about a timelier return to 2% inflation (Fortune).
Chair Kevin Warsh declined to prejudge December. He also said the Fed will keep eight meetings a year but turn one of them in 2027 into a strategy session with no rate decision (Kiplinger). Stocks swung during the press conference and closed slightly higher. The bigger move was in bonds: the 2-year yield slipped to 4.71% while the 10-year rose to 5.02%, a steeper curve (Kiplinger, AP). CME FedWatch still priced an 86% chance of a December hike, up from 78% a day earlier (CoinDesk).
WMR data: going into today the 10-year yield was 4.99%, up about a full percentage point over a year; track it with the dollar and the VIX on Market Pulse. Canada moved the other way on the same day: the Bank of Canada raised its rate by a quarter point to 2.50%.
Microsoft and Alphabet: same AI boom, opposite reactions
Microsoft’s fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 19% to $92.3 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.89 rose 18% (GAAP $4.92 includes a small gain on its OpenAI stake). Azure grew 48%, Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $63.9 billion, and commercial remaining performance obligation, contracted revenue not yet booked, jumped 73% to $677 billion. Reuters said Azure revenue of $33.17 billion beat the $32.84 billion Visible Alpha estimate. Cash spent on property and equipment doubled to $39.4 billion; including finance leases, capex was $45.2 billion (Reuters).
Alphabet’s revenue rose 25% to $127.6 billion and Google Cloud revenue more than doubled to $30.7 billion, above the $29.6 billion analysts expected (Reuters). But GAAP EPS fell to $2.12 from $2.87, cut by $0.55 from an $8.66 billion loss on equity holdings, and capex of $51.4 billion pushed free cash flow to minus $9.1 billion, against LSEG’s estimate of roughly break-even (Reuters). Alphabet also bought back no stock and instead sold $12.4 billion of shares through its at-the-market program.
Why it matters: both companies are spending heavily, but Microsoft showed the contracted demand behind the spending while Alphabet showed the cash drain. WMR data: Alphabet entered the report down 5.8% in a week and 19.5% below its three-month high; Microsoft sat just 1.5% below its high. See Microsoft and Earnings Calendar.
Earnings decided the session’s biggest moves
Vertiv jumped 16.5% after organic orders more than doubled and it raised its outlook, and Micron gained 5.9% to $983.23 as SK Hynix’s record quarter kept the memory trade alive. Wendy’s rose about 15% on Trian’s $7.35-a-share cash proposal. On the losing side, F5 and Enphase dropped sharply on weak outlooks, and Boston Scientific fell after cutting its fourth-quarter sales view, which Bloomberg tied to an August cyberattack.
Nvidia slipped 1.2% and Apple 0.9%, so the day’s gains were not led by the largest names. WMR data: Micron ended Tuesday 11.9% lower over one month, so today’s jump is a rebound inside a pullback; see Semiconductor Cycle.
After-hours earnings
| Company | Results | Outlook | Stock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft (MSFT) FQ1 | Revenue $92.3B (+19%); non-GAAP EPS $4.89 (GAAP $4.92); Azure +48% | No numeric outlook in the release; guidance comes on the call | about +4% after hours |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 | Revenue $127.6B (+25%); GAAP EPS $2.12; Cloud $30.7B (+103%) | No full-year capex figure in the release | down more than 6% after hours (Reuters) |
| KLA (KLAC) FQ1 | Revenue $4.14B (about +29%); non-GAAP EPS $1.22 (GAAP $1.18) | FQ2 revenue $4.7B ± $0.2B; non-GAAP EPS $1.44 ± $0.11 | After-hours and next-day reaction in the morning report |
| Fortinet (FTNT) Q3 | Revenue $2.08B (+20%); billings $2.34B (+29%); non-GAAP EPS $0.91 (GAAP $0.86) | 2026 revenue $8.125B-8.215B; buyback authorization raised by $1.2B | After-hours and next-day reaction in the morning report |
| eBay (EBAY) Q3 | Revenue $3.21B (+14%); GMV $23.2B (+15%); non-GAAP EPS $1.51 (GAAP $1.11) | Q4 revenue $3.19B-3.24B | After-hours and next-day reaction in the morning report |
| Chipotle (CMG) Q3 | Revenue $3.3B (+9.6%); comparable sales +2.1%; EPS $0.27 (GAAP and adjusted) | 2026 comparable sales growth in the low single digits | After-hours and next-day reaction in the morning report |
Results come from the companies’ releases and SEC filings. KLA beat the estimates Investing.com compiled for both the quarter and its December-quarter guidance. Chipotle’s restaurant-level margin narrowed to 23.3% from 24.5% as labor costs rose. Also reporting after the bell: ServiceNow and Ford; full numbers in the morning report.
Last call vs. what happened
| What we flagged this morning | What happened | Market reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Fed decision at 2:00 PM | Held at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with two dissents for a hike | S&P 500 +0.3%; 10-year yield 5.02% |
| Whether the memory-chip rally would hold | Micron closed up 5.86% | Nvidia -1.17%, so the gain stayed concentrated in memory |
| Microsoft and Alphabet after the close | Microsoft beat on Azure; Alphabet beat on Cloud but burned cash | MSFT about +4%, GOOGL down more than 6% after hours |
| Bank of Canada | Raised its rate 25 bp to 2.50% | Signaled it may need to raise again |
The morning’s base case of a Fed hold, which futures priced at more than 90%, came true and is logged on the track record.
What to watch
| Time (ET) | Event |
|---|---|
| Thu 8:30 AM | Q3 GDP (advance), WSJ survey 3.1%; September PCE inflation, survey 3.7% headline and 3.1% core |
| Thu 8:30 AM | Weekly jobless claims, survey 200,000 |
| Thu morning | ECB decision; 70 of 73 economists in a Reuters poll expected a hold at 2.50% |
| Thu before the open | Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck, Eli Lilly |
| Thu after the close | Amazon (call 5:00 PM), Intel, Starbucks, Sandisk, Gilead, Reddit |
- If Microsoft’s call guidance lifts capital spending without hurting margins → check: Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron in Thursday trading
- If GDP and PCE both come in above the survey → check: the 2-year yield and December hike odds, now 86%
- If Amazon’s AWS growth speeds up while capex rises → check: whether the market treats it like Microsoft or like Alphabet
Not a forecast — what to check depending on the outcome.
Our calls for Thursday (logged on the track record before the results): Q3 GDP growth at or above 2.5% annualized; the ECB holding its deposit rate at 2.50%; Microsoft closing Thursday above Wednesday’s $531.01.
Market data
Close (10/28)
| Index | Close | Day |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | +21.38 (+0.3%) |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,475.10 | +97.53 (+0.2%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,549.85 | +72.04 (+0.3%) |
| Rates and commodities | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.02% | from 4.99% |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.71% | -3 bp |
| 30-year Treasury yield | 5.35% | +5 bp |
| Brent crude | $111.64 | +2% |
Index closes and the 10-year yield from AP; 2-year and 30-year from Kiplinger. Breadth was even: NYSE advancers edged decliners 1.05 to 1, while the Nasdaq had 1.48 gainers for every loser (Reuters). The S&P 500 rose for a third day and is about 1% below its October record.
U.S. markets at a glance — last 12 monthsComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-27S&P 5001Y +13.7%7,723 · 1W +0.1%Nasdaq1Y +14.1%26,478 · 1W +0.2%Dow1Y +10.9%52,378 · 1W -0.2%PHLX Semis1Y +64.6%11,483 · 1W +1.8%VIX1Y +7.4%17.63 · 1W +1.9%US 10Y1Y +1.00p4.993% · 1W -0.124pDollar Idx1Y +3.4%102.31 · 1W +0.6%Gold1Y -1.5%4,074 · 1W -1.7%WTI Crude1Y +62.5%99.97 · 1W -1.8%Tap for details
| Name | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 6M | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | +0.6% | +0.1% | +0.5% | +8.2% | +13.7% |
| Nasdaq | 26,478 | +1.2% | +0.2% | -1.3% | +7.3% | +14.1% |
| Dow | 52,378 | +0.0% | -0.2% | +1.7% | +6.6% | +10.9% |
| PHLX Semis | 11,483 | +3.6% | +1.8% | -7.9% | +14.4% | +64.6% |
| VIX | 17.63 | -4.1% | +1.9% | +9.7% | +4.4% | +7.4% |
| US 10Y | 4.993% | +0.007p | -0.124p | -0.247p | +0.639p | +0.996p |
| Dollar Idx | 102.31 | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +3.8% | +3.4% |
| Gold | 4,074 | +0.9% | -1.7% | -2.3% | -11.6% | -1.5% |
| WTI Crude | 99.97 | -1.8% | -1.8% | +8.0% | +0.0% | +62.5% |
Big Tech and chips
| Stock | Close (10/28) | Day |
|---|---|---|
| Micron (MU) | $983.23 | +5.86% |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $324.89 | +1.34% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $531.01 | -0.06% |
| Apple (AAPL) | $343.83 | -0.94% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $215.38 | -1.17% |
Closing prices from Stock Analysis. Apple held a product event today and introduced its first touchscreen MacBook Pro (9to5Mac).
Big Tech 1D performanceComputed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-27Tap for details
| Name | Close | 1D | 1W | 1M | 6M | 1Y | YTD | vs 1Y high | Volume vs 20D avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $217.94 | +0.9% | +0.7% | -3.2% | +2.5% | +14.1% | +17.1% | -8.9% | 0.8x |
| Tesla (TSLA) | $407.46 | +4.0% | +9.0% | +9.5% | +8.4% | -9.9% | -9.4% | -16.8% | 1.2x |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $320.58 | +1.2% | -5.8% | -6.8% | -8.2% | +19.4% | +2.6% | -20.3% | 1.2x |
| Apple (AAPL) | $347.10 | +0.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% | +28.4% | +29.6% | +28.0% | -0.3% | 1.0x |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | $531.33 | -0.2% | -0.1% | +2.9% | +24.3% | +0.8% | +10.6% | -2.2% | 0.9x |
| Amazon (AMZN) | $253.10 | +1.6% | -3.6% | +1.4% | -2.5% | +11.5% | +9.7% | -10.9% | 0.9x |
| Meta (META) | $620.19 | -1.6% | -10.7% | -17.5% | -7.5% | -17.1% | -5.8% | -20.2% | 2.6x |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | $342.33 | +4.0% | +2.4% | -3.0% | -14.1% | -4.7% | -0.5% | -28.7% | 1.2x |
| Palantir (PLTR) | $198.73 | -0.1% | +3.2% | +4.8% | +40.8% | +5.0% | +11.8% | -4.9% | 0.9x |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | $721.25 | +1.3% | +0.5% | -3.1% | +9.9% | +15.4% | +17.8% | -5.1% | 0.8x |
Biggest movers
| Company | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Vertiv (VRT) | +16.48% (close) | Q3 sales +61%, organic orders more than doubled, outlook raised |
| Wendy’s (WEN) | +14.6% (2:05 PM) | Trian proposed taking it private at $7.35 a share in cash |
| GE HealthCare (GEHC) | +8.1% (2:05 PM) | Beat on profit and revenue; raised full-year guidance |
| Etsy (ETSY) | +5.9% (2:05 PM) | Profit well above forecasts; active buyers grew for the first time in two years |
| Micron (MU) | +5.86% (close) | Memory demand after SK Hynix’s record quarter |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | -4.1% (2:05 PM) | Q3 profit and revenue missed; crypto revenue -55% |
| Boston Scientific (BSX) | -3.6% (2:05 PM) | Q4 sales outlook cut, tied to an August cyberattack |
| Enphase (ENPH) | -17.1% (3:01 PM) | Weak Q4 revenue guide of $225M-255M |
| F5 (FFIV) | -19.8% (3:01 PM) | Guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth to 8-9% |
Times show when the move was reported (AP at 2:05 PM, StockTitan at 3:01 PM); closing figures from Stock Analysis. GE Vernova also agreed to buy grid-equipment maker Trench Group for about $9.0 billion and doubled its buyback authorization to $20 billion (company 8-K).
Biggest U.S. movers (market cap $5B+)Computed from raw prices · U.S. close of 2026-10-27Tap for details
| Name | 1D | Close | Mkt cap | Volume vs 20D avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRI · Herc Holdings Inc. | +22.8% | $156.06 | $5.2B | 3.1x |
| KNSA · Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Inte | +22.2% | $89.20 | $7.0B | 3.8x |
| SOFI · SoFi Technologies, Inc. | +13.4% | $16.40 | $21.2B | 3.2x |
| PNR · Pentair plc. | +12.8% | $62.29 | $9.9B | 2.5x |
| MXL · MaxLinear, Inc | +12.3% | $74.67 | $6.8B | 1.4x |
| CLS · Celestica, Inc. | +12.1% | $276.54 | $34.9B | 3.1x |
| XYL · Xylem Inc. | -14.2% | $92.86 | $21.7B | 4.6x |
| BA · Boeing Company (The) | -10.7% | $168.18 | $132.9B | 6.9x |
| VLO · Valero Energy Corporation | -9.2% | $387.34 | $111.5B | 1.7x |
| DINO · HF Sinclair Corporation | -8.8% | $114.21 | $20.3B | 1.3x |
| PBF · PBF Energy Inc. | -8.6% | $73.63 | $8.7B | 0.9x |
| AIT · Applied Industrial Technolog | -8.3% | $297.58 | $10.9B | 2.5x |
Global markets
| Market | Close | Day |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX 600 | 644.14 | +0.07% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,694.50 | +0.07% |
In Europe, Stellantis gained more than 15% and Deutsche Bank about 4% on results, while Thyssenkrupp fell 17% and Adyen more than 13% after cutting its margin target (Reuters). Britain’s budget raised the bank surcharge to 6% from 3% for 15 months, less than feared; UK banks rose 1.1% while housebuilders fell more than 6.5%.
Crypto
| Coin | Price (about 4:40 PM ET) | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $80,518.72 | +0.10% |
| Ether | $2,373.62 | +1.3% |
| Solana | $103.13 | +2.00% |
| XRP | $1.34 | +1.30% |
| Most-traded altcoin | 24h volume (USD) | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| BNB | $999M | +2.8% |
| Zcash (ZEC) | $794M | +2.8% |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | $762M | +3.4% |
| Pepe (PEPE) | $634M | +14.7% |
| Ethena (ENA) | $560M | +0.2% |
| Dogecoin (DOGE) | $526M | +3.8% |
| NEAR Protocol (NEAR) | $515M | +3.9% |
Prices and volumes from CoinGecko, excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens. Bitcoin edged up to about $81,000 right after the Fed decision before giving it back (CoinDesk). Strategy shareholders approved moving its preferred shares to daily dividends with 99.3% of votes cast. More on Crypto Market.
Major cryptocurrencies — last 12 monthsComputed from raw prices · as of 2026-10-27Bitcoin1Y -29.3%80,656 · 1W -2.8%Ethereum1Y -43.1%2,344 · 1W -4.2%Solana1Y -49.2%101.04 · 1W -5.1%XRP1Y -49.8%1.32 · 1W -0.9%Tap for details
| Name | Last | 1D | 7D | 30D | 182D | 365D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 80,656 | +0.8% | -2.8% | -4.5% | +5.6% | -29.3% |
| Ethereum | 2,344 | +1.0% | -4.2% | -12.8% | +2.4% | -43.1% |
| Solana | 101.04 | +0.3% | -5.1% | -17.2% | +20.2% | -49.2% |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.2% | -0.9% | -12.9% | -4.2% | -49.8% |
Crypto Fear & Greed IndexComputed from raw prices · as of 2026-10-27Tap for details
0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed. It describes mood, not direction.
| Source | Now | Rating | 1 week ago | 1 month ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 48 | Neutral | 55 | 70 |
Company & Tech News Roundup
- GE Vernova (GEV): raised 2026 revenue guidance to $46.5B-47.5B and settled all Vineyard Wind litigation alongside the Trench deal (company 8-K).
- Wendy’s (WEN): Trian, which owns about 16.3%, says its offer has no financing condition; a special committee of independent directors would review it (SEC filing).
- Apple (AAPL): unveiled a redesigned MacBook Pro with a touchscreen, its biggest Mac design change in years (9to5Mac; CNBC).
- Anthropic: its S-1 still shows no price range; the company plans to list on Nasdaq as ANT (company).
- Microsoft (MSFT): commercial bookings fell 12% and Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 22% in the quarter (company metrics).
- Alphabet (GOOGL): the Gemini app has 1 billion users, and YouTube Music and Premium have more than 150 million subscribers including trials (company release).
What strategists said
| Who | View |
|---|---|
| Ryan Detrick, Carson Group | The hold surprised no one; the market’s focus is whether AI spending continues (neutral) |
| Brandon Zureick, Johnson Investment Counsel | Futures traders see a December hike as likely (cautious on rates) |
Comments as reported by Reuters and Kiplinger.
Calendar
| When (ET) | Event | Survey |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:30 AM | Q3 GDP, advance | 3.1% (Q2: 2.2%) |
| Thu 8:30 AM | September PCE prices, year over year | 3.7% (core 3.1%) |
| Thu 8:30 AM | Initial jobless claims | 200,000 |
| Thu morning | ECB decision | Hold at 2.50% |
| Thu after close | Amazon, Intel, Starbucks, Sandisk, Gilead, Reddit | Amazon call at 5:00 PM |
| Fri | Bank of Japan decision | Hold expected |
| Fri 8:30 AM | Q3 employment cost index | 0.8% |
| Fri 9:45 AM | Chicago PMI (Oct) | 56.0 |
| Mon 11/2 | Apple fiscal Q4 results | After the close |
| Tue 11/3 | U.S. midterm elections | Election Day |
Economic surveys from the WSJ via Dow Jones Newswires; ECB expectation from a Reuters poll.
Asian chipmakers
SK Hynix rose 10.89% and Samsung Electronics 9.01% in Seoul on Wednesday (Korea JoongAng Daily). Samsung Electronics’ results are next, a check on whether memory pricing can carry the U.S. chip names further.
Charts are computed directly from raw prices; each shows its own data date. In this evening edition the charts use Tuesday’s (Oct 27) regular-session close, so they do not include today’s moves quoted in the text. On the web, tap a chart for the detailed table.
After-hours moves are early readings shortly after the releases (Reuters, Yahoo Finance) and can change through the evening and Thursday’s open. Microsoft and Alphabet consensus figures for total EPS and revenue were not confirmed by two major outlets by publication, so only the segment estimates Reuters cited are shown. Reddit buzz and the unusual-volume screen are on Reddit Buzz and U.S. Stock Screener.
This report is for information only and is not investment advice.
Corrections
- 2026-10-29 · Removed the Korea market section to keep this edition focused on U.S. markets.
Sources
- AP – US stocks hold steady after the Fed says it won't raise rates (BNN Bloomberg)
- Reuters – Wall Street rises as Fed holds rates steady (Virginia Business)
- Federal Reserve – FOMC statement, Oct. 28, 2026
- Kiplinger – Fed meeting live updates, October 2026
- Fortune – Fed holds rates steady as Cook and Hammack dissent
- CoinDesk – Fed leaves interest rates unchanged as expected
- Bank of Canada – Policy rate announcement, Oct. 28, 2026
- Microsoft – FY27 Q1 earnings press release
- Microsoft – FY27 Q1 metrics
- Reuters – Microsoft beats quarterly cloud revenue estimates (Investing.com)
- Alphabet – Q3 2026 earnings release
- Reuters – Alphabet's Google Cloud unit beats quarterly revenue estimates (Global Banking & Finance Review)
- 9to5Google – Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings
- KLA – Fiscal 2027 first-quarter results (PR Newswire)
- Fortinet – Q3 2026 results (GlobeNewswire)
- eBay – Q3 2026 results (SEC 8-K exhibit)
- Chipotle – Q3 2026 results (PR Newswire)
- GE Vernova – Q3 2026 results and Trench Group agreement (SEC 8-K exhibit)
- Trian – Wendy's proposal letter (SEC 13D/A exhibit)
- AP – Midday market story with movers (CP24)
- CNBC – Stocks making the biggest moves midday
- StockTitan – Stock market today, Oct. 28 (live)
- Stock Analysis – NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, MU, VRT price history
- Bloomberg – Boston Scientific falls on sales hit after August cyberattack
- Reuters – STOXX 600 as investors sift earnings (Euronext)
- Reuters – London's FTSE 100 and the UK budget (MarketScreener)
- Korea JoongAng Daily – KOSPI surges past 6,000
- CoinGecko – Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP and high-volume coins
- CoinDesk – Live updates, Oct. 28
- BEA – Release schedule
- Dow Jones Newswires – Data week ahead, WSJ survey (MarketScreener)
- ECB – Governing Council meeting calendar
- Reuters poll on the ECB (Global Banking & Finance Review)
- Amazon – Q3 2026 earnings call announcement
- 9to5Mac – Apple announces redesigned MacBook Pro with touchscreen
- Anthropic – S-1 filing announcement
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