Pre-Open Check: GDP Beats at 3.4% as Nasdaq Futures Lag on Alphabet

Before the bell

Data and earnings

• Q3 GDP (8:30 AM): the advance estimate showed 3.4% annualized growth, beating the Dow Jones consensus of 3.1% and well above Q2’s 2.2%. September PCE inflation came out at the same time; consensus was 3.6%-3.7% y/y headline and 3.1% core. A hot core print would add to pressure on a 10-year already near 5%.
• ECB (9:15 AM): a hold at 2.50% is widely expected. The bigger story is Lagarde’s early exit, so the 9:45 AM press conference matters more than the rate.
• Pre-market earnings: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Merck and Mastercard; see the morning report.

Pre-market movers

• Alphabet down about 10% after its EPS miss and negative free cash flow (story). Chip names are also weaker.
• Microsoft up about 3% on Azure’s 48% growth (story).
• Caterpillar down 9.7% despite a 17% sales jump (story); Eli Lilly up about 4% on a raised outlook (story).

What to watch

1. Does the Nasdaq hold its gap? Futures price a split tape: Dow near flat, Nasdaq down more than 1%. Watch whether dip buyers step in on chips after the first hour.
2. The 10-year vs. 5%: strong GDP plus firm PCE could push it higher, which tends to weigh on long-duration tech.
3. Amazon and Intel after the close: the next test of the AI spending trade after Alphabet’s and Microsoft’s split verdict.