Track record
Every watch point and call made in a report is checked in the next report. Misses stay on the record.
16Hit
1Miss
0Partly right
4Not scored
Past calls and results
| Checked | Call or watch point | What happened | Verdict | Call made → Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | AMD closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of $566.42 | AMD fell 11.78% by 1:41 PM ET on Intel's guide and closed down about 12%, well below the $566.42 line | Hit | Oct 30 Morning → Oct 30 Weekly |
| 2026-10-30 | S&P 500 closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of 7,720.39 | S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07 (-140.32, -1.82%, AP final), below the 7,720.39 line; worst day since June | Hit | Oct 30 Morning → Oct 30 Evening |
| 2026-10-30 | Nasdaq Composite closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of 26,184.72 | Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00 (-747.73, -2.86%, AP final), below the 26,184.72 line | Hit | Oct 30 Morning → Oct 30 Evening |
| 2026-10-30 | Intel closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of $92.07 | Intel fell 28.6% (AP final), its worst day since 1974, closing below the $92.07 line | Hit | Oct 29 Evening → Oct 30 Evening |
| 2026-10-30 | Amazon closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of $243.79 | Amazon fell 1.4% (AP final), below the $243.79 line, after recovering most of a 7.2% premarket drop | Hit | Oct 29 Evening → Oct 30 Evening |
| 2026-10-30 | Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 1.25% | The BOJ kept its short-term policy rate at 1.25% on Oct 30 (NHK), meeting the criterion | Hit | Oct 29 Morning → – |
| 2026-10-29 | Nasdaq Composite closes Oct 29 below its Oct 28 close of 26,549.85 | Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,188.08 (-1.36%, Reuters preliminary), below the 26,549.85 line | Hit | Oct 29 Morning → Oct 29 Evening |
| 2026-10-29 | ServiceNow closes Oct 29 down more than 5% from its Oct 28 close | ServiceNow closed at $109.67 (-26.95%), clearing the -5% line | Hit | Oct 29 Morning → Oct 29 Evening |
| 2026-10-29 | Eli Lilly closes Oct 29 above its Oct 28 close | Eli Lilly closed at $1,373.00 (+6.57%) | Hit | Oct 29 Morning → Oct 29 Evening |
| 2026-10-29 | Alphabet closes Oct 29 below its Oct 28 close of $324.89 | Alphabet closed at $283.82 (-12.64%), below $324.89 | Hit | Oct 29 Morning → Oct 29 Evening |
| 2026-10-29 | ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.50% | ECB kept the deposit rate at 2.50% (ECB statement) | Hit | Oct 28 Evening → Oct 29 Evening |
| 2026-10-29 | Microsoft closes Oct 29 above its Oct 28 close of $531.01 | Microsoft closed at $530.14 (-0.16%), $0.87 short of the $531.01 lineWhy it missed / next timeMisread evidence: we relied on the after-hours gain (about +4%) and the beat, but Alphabet's slide weighed on Big Tech and the premarket gain faded during the session. Next time, next-day calls on reporting stocks need Nasdaq 100 futures and the stock's peer group pointing the same way as the after-hours move. | Miss | Oct 28 Evening → Oct 29 Evening |
| 2026-10-29 | Q3 U.S. GDP (advance) grows 3.0% or more annualized | Advance estimate showed 3.4% annualized growth (Dow Jones consensus 3.1%), clearing the 3.0% bar | Hit | Oct 29 Evening → Oct 29 Pre-open |
| 2026-10-29 | Q3 U.S. GDP (advance) grows 2.5% or more annualized | Advance estimate showed 3.4% annualized growth (Dow Jones consensus 3.1%), clearing the 2.5% bar | Hit | Oct 28 Evening → Oct 29 Pre-open |
| 2026-10-29 | Samsung Electronics' final Q3 operating profit lands within 3% of the 107.4 trillion won preliminary figure | Final operating profit of 107.44 trillion won, inside the 104.2-110.6 trillion won band; shares still fell 5.37% by late morning as no new buyback details came | Hit | Oct 29 Morning → – |
| 2026-10-28 | FOMC holds rates (futures priced a hold above 90%) | Held at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote (Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter-point hike); S&P 500 +0.3%, 10-year yield 5.02% | Hit | Oct 28 Morning → Oct 28 Evening |
| 2026-10-28 | Whether Samsung Electronics and SK hynix would follow the U.S. chip rally (SOX +3.6%) | Samsung Electronics +9.01%, SK hynix +10.89% in Seoul | Hit | Oct 28 Morning → Oct 28 Evening |
| 2026-10-28 | SK hynix Q3 operating profit and shareholder returns | Operating profit of 83.33 trillion won beat expectations (about 76 trillion won); shares +10.89% | Not scoredFlagged to watch, no direction | Oct 28 Morning → Oct 28 Evening |
| 2026-10-28 | U.S. 10-year yield at 5% | Closed at 4.99%, just under 5% | Not scoredFlagged to watch, no direction | Oct 27 Evening → Oct 28 Morning |
| 2026-10-27 | Whether U.S. indexes would rebound after two down weeks | S&P 500 +0.70%, Nasdaq +0.82% to start the week | Not scoredFlagged to watch, no direction | Oct 26 Evening → Oct 27 Morning |
| 2026-10-27 | Verizon earnings (pre-market) | Adjusted EPS of $1.31 (vs $1.21 a year earlier); full-year guidance raised | Not scoredFlagged to watch, no direction | Oct 26 Evening → Oct 27 Morning |
Hit and Miss apply only to directional calls; 'Not scored' marks items flagged without a direction before the new rules (Oct 29). Hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + misses).
Upcoming calls and watch points (not yet checked)
Calls published in advance. The pass/fail line is written down first and scored as-is on the check date.
No calls are waiting to be checked. New ones come with the next report.
Hit rate and record by area
| Period | Dates (by check date) | Directional hit rate | Hit / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 days | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31 | 94% | 16 / 1 |
| Last 30 days | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31 | 94% | 16 / 1 |
| All-time | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31 | 94% | 16 / 1 |
Hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + misses). Partly right and not-scored items are excluded. With few calls, one or two results swing the rate — check the counts. The record starts on 2026-10-28.
Record by area
| Area | Hit / Miss / Partly | % |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. stocks | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| Semiconductors | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| Rates | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| Earnings | 6 / 1 / 0 | 86% |
| Economic data | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
Record by confidence
| Confidence | Hit / Miss / Partly | % |
|---|---|---|
| High | 5 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| Medium | 10 / 1 / 0 | 91% |