的中記録
レポートで示した注目点と予想が実際にどうなったかを、次のレポートで確認してすべて記録します。外れた予想も消しません。
16的中
1外れ
0一部的中
4判定対象外
過去の予想と結果
| 確認日 | 予想・注目点 | 実際の結果 | 判定 | 予想したレポート → 確認したレポート |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | AMD closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of $566.42 | AMD fell 11.78% by 1:41 PM ET on Intel's guide and closed down about 12%, well below the $566.42 line | 的中 | 10/30 寄り付き前 → 10/30 週間 |
| 2026-10-30 | S&P 500 closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of 7,720.39 | S&P 500 closed at 7,580.07 (-140.32, -1.82%, AP final), below the 7,720.39 line; worst day since June | 的中 | 10/30 寄り付き前 → 10/30 引け後 |
| 2026-10-30 | Nasdaq Composite closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of 26,184.72 | Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,437.00 (-747.73, -2.86%, AP final), below the 26,184.72 line | 的中 | 10/30 寄り付き前 → 10/30 引け後 |
| 2026-10-30 | Intel closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of $92.07 | Intel fell 28.6% (AP final), its worst day since 1974, closing below the $92.07 line | 的中 | 10/29 引け後 → 10/30 引け後 |
| 2026-10-30 | Amazon closes Oct 30 below its Oct 29 close of $243.79 | Amazon fell 1.4% (AP final), below the $243.79 line, after recovering most of a 7.2% premarket drop | 的中 | 10/29 引け後 → 10/30 引け後 |
| 2026-10-30 | Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 1.25% | The BOJ kept its short-term policy rate at 1.25% on Oct 30 (NHK), meeting the criterion | 的中 | 10/29 寄り付き前 → – |
| 2026-10-29 | Nasdaq Composite closes Oct 29 below its Oct 28 close of 26,549.85 | Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,188.08 (-1.36%, Reuters preliminary), below the 26,549.85 line | 的中 | 10/29 寄り付き前 → 10/29 引け後 |
| 2026-10-29 | ServiceNow closes Oct 29 down more than 5% from its Oct 28 close | ServiceNow closed at $109.67 (-26.95%), clearing the -5% line | 的中 | 10/29 寄り付き前 → 10/29 引け後 |
| 2026-10-29 | Eli Lilly closes Oct 29 above its Oct 28 close | Eli Lilly closed at $1,373.00 (+6.57%) | 的中 | 10/29 寄り付き前 → 10/29 引け後 |
| 2026-10-29 | Alphabet closes Oct 29 below its Oct 28 close of $324.89 | Alphabet closed at $283.82 (-12.64%), below $324.89 | 的中 | 10/29 寄り付き前 → 10/29 引け後 |
| 2026-10-29 | ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.50% | ECB kept the deposit rate at 2.50% (ECB statement) | 的中 | 10/28 引け後 → 10/29 引け後 |
| 2026-10-29 | Microsoft closes Oct 29 above its Oct 28 close of $531.01 | Microsoft closed at $530.14 (-0.16%), $0.87 short of the $531.01 line外れた理由・次回への反映Misread evidence: we relied on the after-hours gain (about +4%) and the beat, but Alphabet's slide weighed on Big Tech and the premarket gain faded during the session. Next time, next-day calls on reporting stocks need Nasdaq 100 futures and the stock's peer group pointing the same way as the after-hours move. | 外れ | 10/28 引け後 → 10/29 引け後 |
| 2026-10-29 | Q3 U.S. GDP (advance) grows 3.0% or more annualized | Advance estimate showed 3.4% annualized growth (Dow Jones consensus 3.1%), clearing the 3.0% bar | 的中 | 10/29 引け後 → – |
| 2026-10-29 | Q3 U.S. GDP (advance) grows 2.5% or more annualized | Advance estimate showed 3.4% annualized growth (Dow Jones consensus 3.1%), clearing the 2.5% bar | 的中 | 10/28 引け後 → – |
| 2026-10-29 | Samsung Electronics' final Q3 operating profit lands within 3% of the 107.4 trillion won preliminary figure | Final operating profit of 107.44 trillion won, inside the 104.2-110.6 trillion won band; shares still fell 5.37% by late morning as no new buyback details came | 的中 | 10/29 寄り付き前 → – |
| 2026-10-28 | FOMC holds rates (futures priced a hold above 90%) | Held at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote (Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter-point hike); S&P 500 +0.3%, 10-year yield 5.02% | 的中 | 10/28 寄り付き前 → 10/28 引け後 |
| 2026-10-28 | Whether Samsung Electronics and SK hynix would follow the U.S. chip rally (SOX +3.6%) | Samsung Electronics +9.01%, SK hynix +10.89% in Seoul | 的中 | 10/28 寄り付き前 → 10/28 引け後 |
| 2026-10-28 | SK hynix Q3 operating profit and shareholder returns | Operating profit of 83.33 trillion won beat expectations (about 76 trillion won); shares +10.89% | 判定対象外方向を示さない注目点 | 10/28 寄り付き前 → 10/28 引け後 |
| 2026-10-28 | U.S. 10-year yield at 5% | Closed at 4.99%, just under 5% | 判定対象外方向を示さない注目点 | 10/27 引け後 → 10/28 寄り付き前 |
| 2026-10-27 | Whether U.S. indexes would rebound after two down weeks | S&P 500 +0.70%, Nasdaq +0.82% to start the week | 判定対象外方向を示さない注目点 | 10/26 引け後 → 10/27 寄り付き前 |
| 2026-10-27 | Verizon earnings (pre-market) | Adjusted EPS of $1.31 (vs $1.21 a year earlier); full-year guidance raised | 判定対象外方向を示さない注目点 | 10/26 引け後 → 10/27 寄り付き前 |
「的中」「外れ」は方向を示した予想だけが対象です。「判定対象外」は新ルール（10月29日）以前に方向を示さず注目点として挙げた項目です。的中率＝的中÷（的中＋外れ）。
これから確認する予想・注目点
レポートで事前に示した予想です。判定基準を先に書き、確認日にそのまま判定します。
確認待ちの予想はありません。次のレポートで新たに掲載します。
的中率・分野別の成績
| 期間 | 日付（確認日ベース） | 方向予想の的中率 | 的中 / 外れ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 直近1週間 | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31 | 94% | 16 / 1 |
| 直近1カ月 | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31 | 94% | 16 / 1 |
| 累計 | 2026-10-28 – 2026-10-31 | 94% | 16 / 1 |
的中率＝的中÷（的中＋外れ）。一部的中と判定対象外は除きます。件数が少ないうちは1〜2件で大きく変わるため、件数もあわせてご覧ください。記録は2026年10月28日から始めています。
分野別の成績
| 分野 | 的中 / 外れ / 一部 | % |
|---|---|---|
| 米国株 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| 半導体 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| 金利 | 3 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| 決算 | 6 / 1 / 0 | 86% |
| 経済指標 | 2 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
確信度別の成績
| 確信度 | 的中 / 外れ / 一部 | % |
|---|---|---|
| 高 | 5 / 0 / 0 | 100% |
| 中 | 10 / 1 / 0 | 91% |